Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.97769e-05           1           3          80          15           1        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.04227e-05           4          26          65           5           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.29275e-07           1          10          80           9           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =       41.0000           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             2.50       19.00       68.75        9.00        0.75     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C4.8