Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.24123e-05          10          69          21           0           0        B5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.40112e-06          16          78           5           1           0        B3.4
GOES Xray  =   5.49479e-08           7          78          14           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =       41.0000           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             9.50       65.25       22.50        2.25        0.50     B5.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.7