Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.43143e-06          27          70           3           0           0        B2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.66719e-06          15          73          12           0           0        B4.2
GOES Xray  =   1.34303e-08          33          67           0           0           0        B1.4
est. ISN   =       25.0000           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            20.50       66.25       11.75        1.50        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)