Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.97942e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.28500e-06          38          61           1           0           0        B1.4
GOES Xray  =   1.47772e-08          24          76           0           0           0        B1.5
est. ISN   =       26.0000           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                            31.00       58.50        9.00        1.50        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.7