Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.79007e-06          36          62           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.33764e-06          37          62           1           0           0        B1.4
GOES Xray  =   1.32765e-08          34          66           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =       40.0000           6          44          43           6           1        C1.0
 
together                            28.25       58.50       11.50        1.50        0.25     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B1.3