Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.11323e-06          32          65           3           0           0        B1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.79453e-06          21          75           3           1           0        B2.6
GOES Xray  =   3.02416e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.3
est. ISN   =       8.00000          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            28.75       67.00        4.00        0.25        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B2.0