Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.51433e-05          10          51          36           3           0        B8.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.32500e-05           4          57          38           1           0        B8.1
GOES Xray  =   9.09330e-08           1          38          59           2           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       17.0000          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                             8.00       52.25       37.50        2.25        0.00     B8.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4