Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.86720e-06          11          78          10           1           0        B4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.96753e-06          18          76           5           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   4.13969e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.5
est. ISN   =       30.0000           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                            10.50       72.25       14.75        2.50        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.4