Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.16592e-05           1           0          35          50          14        M1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.63837e-05           1           0          46          45           8        M1.0
GOES Xray  =   2.32582e-07           1           2          61          32           4        C6.5
est. ISN   =       45.0000           4          25          61           7           3        C1.7
 
together                             1.00        7.25       51.00       33.50        7.25     C6.8
 
realized                                                                                      C5.6