Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.68426e-05           1           4          49          43           3        C8.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.60661e-05           1           0          52          41           6        C9.5
GOES Xray  =   2.48283e-07           1           0          41          48          10        M1.1
est. ISN   =       52.0000           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             0.75        5.75       51.75       36.75        5.00     C8.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1