Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.73993e-05           1           4          51          41           3        C8.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.47394e-05           1           2          60          33           4        C8.0
GOES Xray  =   2.20535e-07           1           1          62          33           3        C6.7
est. ISN   =       70.0000           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             0.25        3.25       60.25       33.25        3.00     C6.8
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4