Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.32219e-05           1           1          61          30           7        C6.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.54578e-05           1           2          82          15           0        C4.3
GOES Xray  =   1.94279e-07           1           1          75          22           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =       82.0000           2           1          58          33           6        C7.2
 
together                             0.50        2.00       69.00       25.00        3.50     C5.3
 
realized                                                                                      C7.0