Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.92798e-05           1           0          54          37           8        C8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.68717e-05           1           0          43          46          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.20443e-07           1           1          62          33           3        C6.7
est. ISN   =       89.0000           1           0          75          20           4        C4.6
 
together                             0.25        0.75       58.75       34.00        6.25     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.7