Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.17355e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.70343e-05           2           8          79          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.72578e-07           1           5          80          14           0        C3.2
est. ISN   =       86.0000           1           0          61          32           6        C7.0
 
together                             1.25        4.00       74.50       18.50        1.75     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      C2.5