Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.09265e-05           5          32          58           5           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.66622e-05           5          45          44           6           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   7.96966e-08           7          61          29           3           0        B8.1
est. ISN   =       76.0000           1           9          59          28           3        C4.9
 
together                             4.50       36.75       47.50       10.50        0.75     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      B7.8