Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.21082e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.37708e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.55454e-08          21          79           0           0           0        B1.6
est. ISN   =       53.0000           1          17          63          18           1        C2.5
 
together                            24.00       54.75       16.50        4.50        0.25     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B3.5