Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.28603e-05          13          65          21           1           0        B6.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.12604e-05           4          24          67           5           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   4.39592e-08          10          86           4           0           0        B4.9
est. ISN   =       30.0000           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                             8.00       55.25       33.25        3.50        0.00     B6.9
 
realized                                                                                      B6.9