Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.54953e-05           1          13          80           6           0        C2.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.58270e-05           1           6          82          11           0        C2.7
GOES Xray  =   1.26759e-07           1           9          82           8           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =       26.0000           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                             2.00       20.75       69.50        7.75        0.00     C2.0
 
realized                                                                                      C4.1