Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.89098e-05           1           4          80          14           1        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.26901e-05           3          23          67           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   1.28203e-07           1          11          80           8           0        C1.8
est. ISN   =       22.0000           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             2.75       23.50       65.25        8.25        0.25     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.9