Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.91753e-06          14          78           7           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.26615e-06          17          75           8           0           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   4.03085e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.4
est. ISN   =       15.0000          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            14.50       76.00        8.75        0.75        0.00     B3.8
 
realized                                                                                      B4.0