Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.76928e-05           3          42          52           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.23905e-05           9          63          27           1           0        B7.1
GOES Xray  =   9.18799e-08           1          39          59           1           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       11.0000          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                             8.75       50.50       39.00        1.75        0.00     B8.3
 
realized                                                                                      B8.6