Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.72887e-05           4          43          50           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.31108e-05           5          58          36           1           0        B7.9
GOES Xray  =   1.37779e-07           1           6          80          13           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =       10.0000          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                             9.50       39.75       46.00        4.75        0.00     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2