Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.15813e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.21756e-05           2           3          72          23           0        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.61099e-07           1           7          78          14           0        C3.3
est. ISN   =       39.0000           5          47          41           6           1        B9.6
 
together                             2.00       15.25       68.00       14.50        0.25     C2.8
 
realized                                                                                      C7.1