Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.71139e-05           4          45          48           3           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.21158e-05           8          66          25           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   6.95565e-08           7          66          27           0           0        B7.1
est. ISN   =       40.0000           6          44          43           6           1        C1.0
 
together                             6.25       55.25       35.75        2.50        0.25     B8.1
 
realized                                                                                      B8.8