Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.53732e-05           1           2          46          47           4        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.25594e-05           1           4          57          36           2        C6.9
GOES Xray  =   2.12351e-07           1           1          68          27           3        C5.2
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                             2.50       13.75       50.75       30.75        2.25     C5.0
 
realized                                                                                      C7.7