Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.64924e-06          49          48           3           0           0        B1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.19289e-05           9          66          24           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   1.53506e-08          22          78           0           0           0        B1.6
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                            21.75       60.00       14.75        3.50        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.8