Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.57515e-06          28          68           4           0           0        B3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.12319e-05           9          76          15           0           0        B5.7
GOES Xray  =   3.48582e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.8
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                            13.00       66.75       18.50        1.25        0.50     B5.0
 
realized                                                                                      B4.4