Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.69691e-06          48          49           3           0           0        B1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.22929e-06          52          46           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.22903e-08          18          82           0           0           0        B2.4
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                            31.25       56.25        9.25        3.25        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B4.3