Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.22723e-05           5          27          61           7           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.42834e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.4
GOES Xray  =   8.08254e-08           5          58          34           3           0        B8.4
est. ISN   =       27.0000           6          52          35           7           0        B7.4
 
together                             4.25       35.00       52.75        8.00        0.00     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B7.3