Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.89673e-06          41          56           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.91911e-06          19          76           4           1           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   3.02924e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.2
est. ISN   =       32.0000           4          46          38          12           0        C1.0
 
together                            19.00       66.25       11.50        3.25        0.00     B3.3
 
realized                                                                                      B3.5