Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.96325e-05           3          35          58           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.27070e-05           3          22          68           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   5.56991e-08           8          77          14           1           0        B5.9
est. ISN   =       38.0000           6          50          37           7           0        B8.8
 
together                             5.00       46.00       44.25        4.75        0.00     B9.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.3