Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.95659e-06          34          64           2           0           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.56663e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.89488e-08          17          83           0           0           0        B2.1
est. ISN   =       30.0000           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                            23.00       64.00       11.00        2.00        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B3.7