Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.24919e-05           5          26          62           7           0        C1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.96190e-05           5          30          60           5           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   1.26331e-07           1           9          82           8           0        C1.9
est. ISN   =       28.0000           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                             4.50       29.75       59.00        6.75        0.00     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C2.1