Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.10377e-06          31          66           3           0           0        B1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.91116e-06          16          76           8           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.76265e-08          18          82           0           0           0        B1.9
est. ISN   =       31.0000           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                            17.50       67.75       12.75        2.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.7