Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.63737e-06          27          70           3           0           0        B2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.38171e-05           3          53          41           3           0        B9.0
GOES Xray  =   2.06048e-08          16          84           0           0           0        B2.3
est. ISN   =       22.0000           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                            13.50       65.25       19.50        1.75        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B2.9