Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.36043e-05           1           3          76          19           1        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.29550e-05           2           3          74          21           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.63901e-07           1           7          76          16           0        C3.5
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.75       12.25       70.00       15.25        0.75     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.1