Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.90479e-05           4          37          55           4           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.52052e-05           3          54          40           3           0        B9.1
GOES Xray  =   8.42622e-08           5          52          40           3           0        B9.4
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                             4.75       47.75       41.75        5.75        0.00     B9.7
 
realized                                                                                      B4.2