Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.52378e-05           9          50          38           3           0        B8.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.78294e-05           7          35          53           5           0        C1.1
GOES Xray  =   3.46418e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.7
est. ISN   =       40.0000           6          44          43           6           1        C1.0
 
together                             8.25       54.25       33.75        3.50        0.25     B6.9
 
realized                                                                                      B2.7