Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.18105e-05           5          29          61           5           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.09502e-05           5          23          67           5           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   8.73600e-08           3          48          46           3           0        B9.9
est. ISN   =       51.0000           1          17          68          13           1        C2.2
 
together                             3.25       29.50       60.50        6.50        0.25     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                      C2.6