Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.37345e-05          13          64          21           2           0        B6.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.92360e-06          14          75          11           0           0        B4.4
GOES Xray  =   6.39960e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.8
est. ISN   =       46.0000           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             9.50       58.50       28.50        2.75        0.75     B6.8
 
realized                                                                                      B5.7