Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.15226e-05          10          71          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.09750e-05           9          77          14           0           0        B5.7
GOES Xray  =   3.29642e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.4
est. ISN   =       46.0000           4          24          61           8           3        C1.8
 
together                             8.50       65.00       23.75        2.00        0.75     B5.5
 
realized                                                                                      B4.0