Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.02578e-06          30          67           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.37740e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   3.74039e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =       50.0000           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                            19.75       58.25       18.50        3.25        0.25     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      B6.2