Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.67268e-05           4          47          46           3           0        B9.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.51988e-05           3          53          41           3           0        B9.5
GOES Xray  =   8.17434e-08           5          55          37           3           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =       48.0000           4          21          63           9           3        C2.0
 
together                             4.00       44.00       46.75        4.50        0.75     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      B8.3