Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.75878e-06          16          77           6           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.68520e-06          16          72          12           0           0        B4.2
GOES Xray  =   3.48937e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.8
est. ISN   =       41.0000           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                            12.00       68.25       17.25        2.00        0.50     B4.7
 
realized                                                                                      B3.0