Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.32142e-05           1           3          79          17           0        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.24012e-05           2           3          72          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.62999e-07           1           6          77          16           0        C3.5
est. ISN   =       29.0000           7          48          38           7           0        B7.4
 
together                             2.50       15.25       66.50       15.75        0.00     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8