Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.67328e-05           1           4          47          45           3        C9.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.68297e-05           1           0          44          45          10        M1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.38989e-07           1           1          45          46           7        M1.1
est. ISN   =       43.0000           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             1.25       10.50       47.50       35.25        5.50     C7.1
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1