Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.73212e-05           1           4          51          41           3        C8.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.42990e-05           1           2          62          32           3        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   2.76649e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =       65.0000           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             1.25        4.25       51.75       37.50        5.25     C8.2
 
realized                                                                                      C5.3