Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.09399e-05           1           2          66          28           3        C6.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.09778e-05           1           2          58          36           3        C7.5
GOES Xray  =   1.85973e-07           1           2          76          19           2        C3.6
est. ISN   =       61.0000           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             1.00        5.75       65.25       25.50        2.50     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C6.3