Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.86051e-05           2           4          71          23           0        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.60978e-05           1           2          78          18           1        C4.2
GOES Xray  =   1.79078e-07           1           1          83          14           1        C3.6
est. ISN   =       67.0000           1           7          68          23           1        C3.9
 
together                             1.00        3.75       75.00       19.50        0.75     C3.9
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8