Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.93805e-05           1           5          66          28           0        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.99570e-05           1           5          77          17           0        C3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.96767e-07           1           1          74          23           1        C4.2
est. ISN   =       82.0000           2           1          58          33           6        C7.2
 
together                             0.75        3.50       68.75       25.25        1.75     C4.1
 
realized                                                                                      C4.0